The study of formal religion is a waste of time. Every
moment dedicated to the performing of religious rituals or the studying of the
significance of specific spiritual doctrines is wasted, scandalously
squandered. If you think you can know the unknowable, you are an idiot. Those
who mine inspiration from tracts claiming to glean special information from
secret supernatural sources are double idiots, since they aren’t even doing
their own thinking. No membership in any group, industry amongst any number of
people, will ever yield any certain proof in matters which are simply beyond
human perception to divine. Faith is a contrivance, not a virtue.
There, I said it. It doesn’t make me right. And “Faith is a
contrivance, not a virtue” is more of a catch phrase than it is a contention
substantiated by any of the previous statements. But why go on and on? I
clearly disbelieve. That is what I am clearly out to say.
My statement of faith is that I disbelieve. There is a whole
raft of things in which I disbelieve. Recently I took my devotion to an
actionable level, specifically in regards to my 401k.
Like many of you, I have long shoveled money at various 401k
funds in hopes that not having some pittance of money now will lead to having
less of a pittance of money some time when I am no longer in a position to
determine the scope of my earning power. Whatever eventually resides in the
401k will constitute the funds I will be living off of sometime in the
unknowable future—assuming I live past my use by date. Frankly, it’s a stupid
idea on several levels. If it wasn’t for the free matching pittance, found
money come on common to all such schemes, I would have never bothered with the
scam.
It is a scam, too. If
it’s being sold as a supplement to living on the dole (Social Security), that’s
one thing. If it’s being sold as a replacement for any social welfare or an
actual dedicated retirement fund, then it’s a mere waste of time. If it’s being
sold as a way of making you rich, it is a scam incarnate. It’s not much of a
scheme, in any light.
Here’s a pile of money that we aren’t going to tax you on.
(Similar to your also not taxed on health insurance.) As with the health
insurance, your employer may pitch in some other money, which he will not be
taxed on. At some level, your gain will be about 50% on this pile of cash. So
far, it’s not a bad deal. But there’s a catch. Well, several.
First, there’s a limit on how much you can salt away—free of
taxes, that is. It’s age-protracted, but it generally caps out at 7%. As for
your employer’s contribution, its cap depends of his generosity, plus any rule
he wants to make up about vesting or whatnot. Whatever amount of cash this
winds up being, it cannot be used. Not without a penalty. If you actually live
to the age of 67 or so, you can use it then. And you will be taxed on it then.
Or you can use it to buy a house.
But that’s not really where the scam is. If all a 401k were
what I outlined above, it would only be the worst annuity insurance program
ever conceived of—promising to refund the premiums of my employer and myself at
some term date. No, the scam is in what the money does while you are not using
it.
There are funds, you see. Masses of asses, just like
yourself, can choose from a menu of incomprehensibly defined and oddly labeled
funds of your employer’s choosing. Each of these funds is managed by a very
nice young lady who is governed by a set of mathematically determined rules. So
the person in charge of making you wealthy (or less un-wealthy) has all of the
autonomy of your average fast food cashier. And the results are generally what
you might expect. The funds invest, en masse, in whatever is fashionable (or
defined) and perform about a standard deviation worse than the average for
whatever class of vehicle they have invested in. When things go well, the funds
do well. When things are bad, the fund tanks too. Predictably, no one has ever
gotten wealthy by investing in any of the funds most people have a chance to
invest in. What you really get, beyond maybe your own money back, depends on
the overall condition of the world at the time you cash out. No better. Almost
always a little worse. It’s a Lemming Casino.
My own various funds—and I have had up to twenty—seemed to
lose the majority of my employer’s contributions. If I had just taken the money
I had put in and the match my employer gave me and stuffed it in a mattress, I
would have been far better off. I began to disbelieve in the logic of it all.
So I cashed most of them out.
And threw myself a drugs and sex soaked bacchanal. Thus
explaining my lack of posting for the past few weeks.
Kidding. Really. I’m too cheap to take the 35% tax hit for
any reason. I rolled them over into a self-managed IRA instead, and began
making investments in stocks.
Let me tell you about stocks, or ‘equities’ as us in the
know sophisticates like to call them. They’re mostly dope dreams. A few of them
are actual companies with working businesses and free capital and employees and
products which aren’t websites. And some of them have real profits. One would
think that sorting dope dreams from actual firms would be the key to picking a
good stock, but it isn’t. And I would tell you what the key is, but I don’t
know.
And neither does anyone else. Much like Model Railroading,
there is no cap on the amount of time and money you can spend playing with the
stock market. And much like Model Railroading, it largely goes in circles. The
distinctions between Model Railroading and Stock Investing are so few that it
seems as if the two hobbies have simply come up with different naming
conventions.
Model Railroading doesn’t have as many touts. A tout is a
person who tells you how to do your lay-out. In Model Railroading, the tout is
the guy who knows how to match scale pieces together or is a master of period
detail or knows how to contour sponges well. In Stock Investing, the tout is
someone who claims to be rich or is represented as having X billions of dollars
under management or is the representative of a bank with X billions of dollars
in equities. In both hobbies you have
touts which are out to sell something and touts who are just trying to be
helpful. In stock market investing, few of the touts are willing to show you
their real lay-out.
The word ‘tout’ actually comes from the world of horse
betting, where no fortune has ever been made and many a wage lost. The classic
tout approaches the bettor as he is about to place a wager and offers some
advice, such as “Banner Bob in the third.” If that horse should win, the tout
will return and request a tip. If the horse doesn’t win, you either won’t find
the tout or he’ll just weakly smile at you when you do. Chances are, however,
he will be bugging someone he did give the name of the winning horse to.
If he knew the name of the winning horse, why didn’t he tell
you? Because he didn’t know. He gave the names of several horses to several
people in hopes that the people who bet on what turned out to be a winner will
tip him. At racetracks, it’s a fairly harmless scam.
In Model Railroading and Stock Investing touts aren’t
generally working for tips. Some are just enthusiastic hobbyists. And some are
disguised salesmen. Beware of both. But unlike horse betting, you do need the
tout—up to a point. Without the tout, you’re going to do something silly, like
putting three tracks on the same transformer, or making an incline over ten
degrees or forex trading or buying penny over the counter stocks or investing
in the VIX. There is, however, a point where you need to turn them off. At
least in Stock Investing, once the tout goes into his astrology rain making
happy dance and you understand about half of it, you’re ready. Do it or don’t.
You now know as much as anyone else.
So I did four months of this crap. Without going into my
background, this wasn’t entirely virgin territory for me. I am fairly well
versed in the ins and outs of financial vehicles. My heart really isn’t in
this, but I brought my ass in hopes my mind would follow.
I bought a bunch of crap. I bought stocks. I bought stocks
in companies with businesses. Most of the businesses, I understand. Most of my
stocks pay dividends. I am in every defined sector. I have more than one stock
in every sector. The majority of stocks I hold are in firms I have some familiarity
with—although a few of them I only became familiar with through this exercise
in probable financial auto-Darwinism. End of my freaking investing paradigm.
(I have pipe dreams of becoming a specialist in investing in
women’s fashion retailers. My research plan is to regularly visit stores and
see which ones are busy. And it’s girl watching, too!)
Allow me to describe my portfolio (previously denoted as the
crap I bought). It is a fortress portfolio, designed meticulously to weather
all storms yet seek opportunity in an adventurous but calculated manner. Each
of its components reflect and contribute to a synergistic wealth building
reflex, combining good fundamentals and timing independent opportunity cost
reverse parallels. No, wait. That was the prospectus of every fund I was ever
in. My portfolio fortress is a random pile of tea spoon chunks of name brand
goliaths and off brand micro bigs. Right now my fortress is suitable for
Aquaman. Or maybe the Moleman. If current trends continue, it may be a fortress
at the Center of The Earth. In short, it’s underwater.
Something about this buy low sell high thing evaded me by
investing at the height of the market. Unlike the Model Railroad set, if the
portfolio breaks I don’t have to vacuum the pieces out of the carpet. In truth,
I’m two months in and I’m doing as well as I would have had I done nothing.
Maybe a little better. If I become the Oracle of Wherever I Live, I’ll let you
know. I should be fine, unless interest rates spike, which would drag equities
straight into the toilet. Eternal vigilance is the cost of freedom. I am now
the green spider monkey flying my financial plane.
My Portfolio
All aboard the tramp scam
Flim flam lightly capitalized
on a raft of crafty buzzwords
set sail to provide
my retirement.
Powered by reverse engineered buggy whips
Stockpiled high with carbon paper and
Pirated batches of White Out
We navigate with algorithms
Anagrams and voices in the heads of others.
Please squander the sweat of my brow
You black magic man.
Other Updates and Excuses. Ajax Telegraph, author of this
Wonderblog, would like to announce the near completion of his novel,
tentatively titled WAD OF TYPING. Actually, that’s more of a description of the
work’s current state than it is a working title, but what do you want for not
done yet. Currently also in the works is an expansion of Weird Detective
Mystery Adventures, soon to be found resident on HIL-GLE.COM’s web pages. And
next on our Wonderblog will be what pathetically little I have on Ideal
Magazines.
The Wonderblog is now coming off our second best month ever
as far as web hits are concerned. Thank you all for stopping bye!
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